High net worth individuals’ (HNWI) confidence in the UK economy increased in the second half of 2025, although anxiety remains high amid widespread anticipation of potential tax rises in the upcoming Budget.

The latest Saltus Wealth Index, which surveyed 2,000 UK HNWIs with at least £250,000 in investible assets to calculate a single barometer of confidence, rose from 58.2 in January 2025 to 64.7.

However, this is still below the 66.9 peak of August 2024 and comes after the Labour government’s first autumn Budget when HNWIs had very low confidence.

Saltus noted that the improvement was primarily driven by a recovery in sentiment towards the UK economy.

Despite this, the firm said this was likely to have been caused by a strong performance in markets during the period that the research was conducted, rather than a genuine surge in optimism.

Two thirds (66 per cent) of HNWIs said they were now confident, up from 48 per cent in the previous edition of the index.

However, this was still the second lowest level of confidence recorded by the index, and well below the 84 per cent prior to the first Labour Budget.

HNWIs were also found to be feeling more positive about their own finances, with confidence rising from 86 per cent to 92 per cent.

Saltus highlighted that the survey was undertaken immediately after Trump’s tariff activity, when markets fell but then recovered strongly, which could indicate this was short-term relief rather than a true rebound in optimism.

This was supported by the fact that 39 per cent of HNWIs continued to say that money made them anxious, a similar figure to the previous index.

As speculation mounts that the government could target housing, wealth, and inheritance in the upcoming Budget, 78 per cent of HNWIs expected tax rises in the next 12 months, while 46 per cent saw tax changes as a primary risk to their wealth, second only to inflation (58 per cent).

Nearly half (46 per cent) of HNWIs expected increases in capital gains tax, while 41 per cent anticipated changes to employers’ national insurance, and 40 per cent cited income tax and pension contribution relief.

Saltus found that wealth protection also dominated planning behaviour elsewhere, with 39 per cent of HNWIs planning to gift wealth to their children, up from 33 per cent six months ago.

More than a third (35 per cent) have made formal pension beneficiary nominations, and a similar proportion (34 per cent) have set up a trust, while 14 per cent have attached conditions to gifts or inheritance.

Other pressures highlighted in the findings included the imposition of VAT on private school fees, which was driving families to reconsider their children’s education.

Almost one in five (19 per cent) HNW parents had already removed their child from their existing private school, while 10 per cent said they will have to remove their child from private education in the future.

Up to a quarter of HNWIs were considering leaving the UK, with he US the most popular potential destination (22 per cent), followed by Canada (12 per cent) and Australia (8 per cent).

“The report highlights the views of a constituency that is often overlooked and has its ambitions and values denigrated or subordinated to other agendas,” commented Saltus managing partner, Jon Macintosh.

“That constituency is of course HNWIs. If Britain is to get out of the sluggish lane it appears to be stuck in, it is these people that will do it. HNWIs matter.

“The research was conducted in the context of strong rebounds in markets, following the volatility of the spring when Trump’s tariffs caused much turbulence. It is reasonable to speculate that our respondents might feel more prosperous, but they do not feel more secure.

“There is plenty here to support that view. Large numbers of respondents are considering leaving the UK. HNWIs do not think the tax they pay is fair and they believe that there is more ugly tax news in store for them from the Labour government.

“They are continuing to experience the pain of being the squeezed generation – having to offer financial support to both parents and children. Significant numbers report putting in place steps to protect their wealth, particularly relating to intergenerational transfers.

“These attitudes are spiced with a dose of regret. About half of those who voted Labour now wish they hadn’t.

“However, there is one glimmer which we should not ignore. HNWIs report in larger numbers than before that they are participating in nurturing the next generation of business whether that be in investment or in practical assistance such as mentoring.

“If things are going to get better – to almost coin a phrase – you feel that this mix of generosity and good old fashioned self interest will be the way it happens.”

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