Wealth managers expect semi-liquid fund assets to surpass $3trn by 2030

Wealth managers and private markets fund managers are expecting assets under management (AuM) held in semi-liquid vehicles to exceed $3trn by 2030, according to new research by Carne Group.

The third-party management company said the semi-liquid market has already demonstrated momentum, with Deloitte estimates showing AuM almost tripling between 2020 and 2024 to approximately $349bn.

Carne’s study was based on surveys of 200 C-suite executives at fund managers, including 150 European institutional investors and 50 wealth managers who together represent more than $11trn in AuM.

The findings showed that 54 per cent of wealth managers expect AuM to reach between $3trn and $3.5trn by 2030, while 18% believe the figure will climb even higher. Among private fund managers the proportion was larger, with 78 per cent of those surveyed expecting the sector to surpass the $3trn mark.

Chief regulatory and client solutions officer at Carne, Des Fullam, commented: “The democratisation of private markets must be met with a rigorous commitment to retail investor education.

“For this ‘retailisation’ trend to be sustainable, investors must fully grasp the mechanics of periodic redemptions and the long-term nature of the underlying assets. Empowering wealth managers with the right educational tools is as critical as the digital infrastructure itself in ensuring that mass-affluent investors can build truly diversified, resilient portfolios.”

Semi-liquid funds operate as open-ended investment vehicles, providing retail investors with access to typically illiquid assets like private equity, with periodic redemption windows.

Carne’s research revealed that 72 per cent of wealth managers already use semi-liquid funds for their clients, while the other 28 per cent said they are preparing to follow suit almost immediately.

Among those not currently offering these funds, 75 per cent said they expect to start doing so within the next 12 months, while the remaining 25 per cent said they would within the next two years.

“We are seeing a historic pivot in how private capital is raised and deployed,” Fullam added.

“Wealth managers are no longer viewing private markets as an optional ‘extra’ but as a core component of a modern, diversified portfolio. For fund managers, this represents a golden opportunity to tap into a massive, relatively untapped pool of retail capital.

“However, the operational complexity of managing semi-liquid vehicles – balancing daily or monthly subscriptions with illiquid underlying assets – requires a level of digital sophistication and governance that many firms are only now beginning to implement.”

Fullam suggested that as the industry moves toward the potential $3trn milestone in 2030, the distinction between institutional and retail investment strategies is “blurring”.

“The next decade of growth in private markets will not be driven solely by pension funds and other institutional investors, but also by the democratisation of access via the semi-liquid wrapper,” he added.

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